Prognostications After a Week with President Trump

President Trump has so far been an irresponsible leader. As someone who is comfortable (and in fact enjoys!) arguing for the opposite point of view in order to spur on arguments with friends, I often find myself trying to think through the logic of a viewpoint with which I disagree. Some of my most firmly held beliefs that differ from social norms have arisen from this method. The best example is my stance on personal recycling (it's a form of tax, doesn't matter, and is morally licensing, so I'll stick to reducing and reusing thank you very much).


So though I harbored many differences with candidate Donald Trump, I am fully prepared, especially in the presence of so many smug Bernie supporters in my social circle, to try to react to his policies with analysis rather than anger. So far he has demonstrated his usual callous and un-Christian attitude towards others as well as several massive violations of wisdom abut leadership and American institutions which I hold dear, and which history has shown are worthy of respect and adherence. For a good list of these, check out this weekly record.

Russell Simmons wrote an interesting opinion piece on Huffington Post today that I think gives us part of the picture. I've seen a few pieces articulating that even if somehow Trump got impeached, Democrats are in for a long, hard four years. Even assuming something Trump does causes Republicans in power to somehow decide it's worth jumping ship and impeach him, it would take a long time. Even Liberals who are shouting and waving their fists like Robert Reich think it'll be a while before they dump him. And lest the passionate among Democrats forget, President Pence wouldn't be an alliterative leader that propels the country forward.

The timing here could be very interesting. Democrats seem to have little hope of winning back either the House or the Senate in 2018. If things stay this way, Republicans could very well hide behind a smoke screen of their normal obfuscation while letting Trump parade around for two years, and then announce after winning, potentially a filibuster-proof majority, that the voters had endorsed Trump's policies, even though reality says the map and seats up for election favor them. If Trump manages to learn which crazy things warrant backlash and protests, and which fly under the radar, he could manage to be propped up for the entire four years, helping usher in an even stronger majority for Republicans.

If, on the other hand, the protests and political activism that may be coming combine with one or more Trump decisions that break through the cognitively dissonant support of some of his voters, a few things might happen:

• President Trump, who we all know loves to gild things, might start believing polls that show him as un-liked. Protests and woke former Trump supporters might make these numbers sink further and break even more starkly. President Trump might turtle up and keep at things, or change, or just quit. He's a maverick after all, and has said many times he doesn't need this job.
• Slow-moving lawsuits (you actually can't sue the President for things he does as part of his official capacity, FYI) and petitions and eventually articles of impeachment might make it to the house floor. With only a simple majority needed, that's currently 26 Republicans siding with the Democrats, and would be less if it happened after midterms and Democrats picked up some seats. While it would take 2/3 of the Senate, which means a lot of Republicans switching sides and seems pretty near impossible, perhaps just the threat of getting it passed in the house would cause Trump to change course or jump ship given that Alec Baldwin consistently gets under his skin for doing an impression on air.
• The Democrats start offering more leadership and more young, Millennial voices the chance to become part of the party. If protests galvanize the Democrats in a similar way to the Tea Party, the Millennial generation can grab hold of political power. The Democratic leadership in the Senate has recently broadened, but even the Millennials willing to get arrested to change the party are advocating for a 75-year old to take control over a party he doesn't even identify as a member of. This would take Millennials rising up and denying the snowflake aspersions cast our way with little thought. I love this idea.
• Civil servants, judges, and large institutions combine to create a lasting resistance to the destruction of democratic and social norms in which President Trump is constantly engaging. From the "Resist" banner by Greenpeace to the rogue Tweets by NPS, EPA, and NASA employees, everyone everywhere makes sure that their one vote (that they probably were too busy or apathetic to cast, hence Trump winning in the first place) is followed with a few hours of dedication to the American Dream that unifies and uplifts, instead of President Trump's "American Carnage" inauguration address.

No matter what happens over the coming weeks, months, and years in our American political experiment, I know two things about myself for certain. First, I will continue to help out political campaigns for candidates I support by canvassing. I love the walking, the fulfillment I get from meeting so many good people, and the knowledge that while I only vote once, I can get many more votes cast by putting shoe leather to pavement. Second, I will keep reading and talking and being optimistic. If I stay informed, and keep reading, I will know more about why things are happening, and be able to help spread this information in my circles.

Spiritualism and Industrialism

Been having a series of discussions with a couple people about what benefits humans have from spirituality and religion that we have replaced with a reverence and idolatry of technology. As we have replaced collective activities in space (fewer mandatory community events, many people exist in separate bubbles, connecting only by choice through the internet and as their children's schedules dictate) with collectively reinforced beliefs through our own filters (facebook news feeds, online news filtering, getting to hear and read only things you already agree with) we have lost something fundamental and meaningful that we had before the industrial revolution because we had to focus on things closer to home.

This discussion has often started as a discussion about the divinity of Christ, or the differnces between Abrahamic and Christ doctrine in the bible - and out of that has come an active discussion on the ability of humans to be something more than their parts when combined. As in Christ was wholly human but able to make decisions that were divine - and so was able to be more through the use of the holy spirit than he could be by himself, much in the same way that through fellowship and compassion, we can be more together than we are individually.

These discussions have also focused on the reductionist tendencies of Donald Trump and the Tea Party / libertarian ideals espoused by many in the far right in America today. If we use politics to separate, and blame people for their life circumstances rather than asking what we can all do to make each other's lives better, then we are falling into a trap that will bring us backwards and make us less together than we would be alone.

David Brooks wrote a great article in the Times this weekend on this idea: The Governing Cancer of our Times

Queen Elizabeth II had a great speech in 2011 about a similar theme: UK and N. Ireland Peace

Why use social media?

In discussion this morning with some of my staff I asked why they use social media.

What I learned from them was surprising - mostly they claimed they use their phones in bursts, when not required to do something else, so our culture at camp of being busy and around people makes them not miss their social media, whereas in bored/down moments they will reflexively reach for their phones to prevent even a moment of boredom.

The most surprising set of answers was that it seemed like none of them spend much time looking through or keeping up with all of the selfies/snapchats/whatever that all of their online friends are posting, they mostly just enjoy the simple action of capturing themselves (and friends) doing something and then sending it off.

I don't really understand the brain science that's going on here, since if they all know that mostly none of them are looking carefully at each others' posts, the narcissism that often gets attributed to millennials is inaccurate. (it seems like the people who actually are into this science would agree with me)

So if millennials aren't using social media because they are more selfish, they're using it because they're bored, that begs the question - how do we keep them engaged (with or without their cell phones)?

Managing Them Out of a Distraction or Irrational Behavior

When adding a millennial to a working team or project, they are just as able as any other generation to observe a task or process in place and then place themselves inside.

When working in a small group of two-four people, everyone is constantly making micro-judgements about many aspects of the group. From the work ethic to the process/product balance, employees use many environmental and managerial signals to determine what to do and when. Since employees must balance their energy level, life outside work, and social situations, we know that they are often distracted or irrational in their approach to work.

Millennials have several unique characteristics that make managing them out of their distraction or irrational behavior easier:

• The language of the internet is chock full of things to be explained. No one is more open to learning than someone who is teaching, so getting a millennial to teach you something about the nearly infinitely new internet age makes them ripe for guidance. Education is a two way street and they are an expert.
• Since the distraction can sometimes be technology induced, but many jobs require computers and being available 24/7, this can pose a nasty conundrum. This is where establishing a culture makes all the difference. Most jobs have an existing culture of how they use technology, so rather than creating a culture, you have to change things. See post on the process of cultural/organizational change. If you change your culture to create times where your staff are free from technology and instead have to rely on each other as people, you will have a much stronger team. Which is more, your millennials are hungry for this kind of deep social interaction. The narrowness of social engagement online causes this.
•  Millennials like to be liked. Use that to your advantage instead of complaining that they have inflated senses of worth. You could go touchey-feely and write your millennials personal notes. You can go parody and make a twitter "wall". You can go statistician and prepare a report for them of the value they bring to the company. You can post positive results of recent customer surveys. You can create an annual social event designed specifically for millennials. You could pay them a pension.

We Want Heroes

Perhaps it comes from growing up on Disney movies that defined everything in black and white, right and wrong, belle and the beast. We see people as either good or bad, and single decisions (like posting the wrong thing on facebook, failing to use a turn signal, or supporting the wrong political candidate) can be used to justify defining and judging a person or entire group.

We read headlines of our heroes character getting the axe and never bother to read deeper because we know they are not the hero we thought they were. Tiger Woods gave us a decade of the best golf in history, but since the moment his mojo started to crack, neither he nor the viewing public at large has been able to have the slightest confidence in his game. This man was the best, and it turns out he was still just as fragile of a basket case as the rest of us.

No matter the source, whether circumstance, worldview, or the resurfacing of a historical pattern, we millennials yearn for heroes that can stand the test of time. This often manifests in the workplace as a clingy need to follow the leader or boss' directions, but since we're millennials, we can't manage to do this directly. Millennials, even the too-cool hipsters, are carefully watching every move, cataloguing  (sometimes in horrifying online detail) every word, and judging. As a generation, we have seen so much information and imagery and lies that we are constantly looking out of the edge of our vision trying to catch our leaders and bosses the way they "really are" so that we can learn their secrets, whether good, or bad.

The real secret is that their bosses are no different than they; just like Tiger. As millennials, we will only begin to realize our potential when we start demanding it. As another generation is crowned and rises up in the post-internet, post-trump-candidacy america, we will begin to finally settle down and make a life for ourselves.

What we need most is leaders willing to take those chances and try things out while also staking a claim for mistakes, errors, lapses in judgement, and being human. Only through that kind of courage can we stop living in constant fear of the internet discovering we're all secretly not good enough.

Using One's Own Strength (The Prince Chapter 13)

Often it seems like millennials are unable to use and build on their strengths. Machiavelli uses examples of rulers losing power after making use of auxiliary or mercenary troops. I think as a result of the information flattening and social subsumption of the smart phone era millennials are unaware or do not trust their own agency in taking action.

This has several results: Some millennials avoid risks, avoid thinking creatively (even while believing they are creative because their participation awards all said so), avoid taking on responsibilities they perceive as complex or prone to failure, and believe they are not appreciated enough just for showing up. These millennials tend to be in the bottom half of performers, and have worked hard to develop the skill of anonymity and camouflage necessary to avoid trolls and social destruction. They can be very loyal if given guidance to develop a niche, and often have insightful institutional and systemic wisdom because of their time observing from the periphery. They are also prone to form disaffected groups that meet under the proverbial bleachers to bitch and break the rules. Given too much space and not enough supervision, these millennials can be poisonous to an entire working team.

Other millennials conflate the flatness of information with the flatness of value of that information. This has several results, some positive, some negative. Millennial culture has a significant degree of anti-elitism, as few millennials get their news through traditional sit-down TV news hours. This loss of ritual and shared bedrock cultural facts has contributed to the return of the "No Nothing" attitude. These millennials have put in the time and effort to develop a labor intensive skill and are successful in their social media realm. They have disdain for tradition and tend to be wholly ignorant of the historical context in which they live. This conflating of flatness with value can also give rise to political and social action that is ostensibly for the better, as discussed with regard to the rise of Bernie Sanders.

Manage with Dirty Hands

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